The Living Web
Those who attempt to predict the future generally fall under one of
four categories: Technologists, Spiritualists, Futurists, and
Historians. The Technologists are opitimized by people like Bill Gates,
and Steve Jobs. Technologists are interested in buzzwords, and “killer
appsâ€; they don’t so much predict the future, as much as they attempt
to invent it. They enjoy making far reaching claims such as “by 2012,
the Home Entertainment Center will be fully controlled by the Personal
Computer.†So here at the beginning I tell the reader not to worry: I’m
no technologist.Then
there are the Spiritualists. Their predictions are usually based upon
an eclectic mixture of metaphysical energies that are focused through
crystals, and directed towards the third eye of a psychic. The psychic
has a “vision†which provides an astrologer with a “key†to read the
stars. The astrologer then reports his findings to a guru who in turn
informs the public of “the approaching age of Aquariusâ€. I never went
to wizard school, so I’m not qualified to give such predictions.The
more scientific cousins of the spiritualists are the futurists. When
the futurists aren’t attending their weekly Klingon classe, or
preparing their Borg costume for the next Star Trek Convention; they
will be found creating technologically advanced nowhere lands. However,
this group has lost considerable authority since the building of space
needles at world fairs went out of style.I myself fall squarely
into the historian camp. In other words, my predictions are made by
placing current trends within a frame of historical parallels. So
without further delay, here is the summery of this speculative work so
far:
- Blogs wikis and social software are mere prototypes of the mediums which will fuel a rapidly growing “living webâ€.
- The long-term consequences of the living web will be comparable to the consequences of the printing press on middle age Europe. We are already seeing the first ripples of the living web’s influence on political campaigns, journalism, and academia.
- The historical parallels are strong enough to suggest that the consequences of these technologies will be far-reaching, unintended, and above all, unforeseen.